The Algo and You

I already locked up the win in Aaron Hernandez League and locked up losses in Where the Big Boys Play and Chopped by the end of Sunday Night, so MNF had no bearing on my fantasy leagues. But we still have money to play with in Parlay Pete’s Picks so we went with the 5-legger below. 

We didn’t do great….Wreckless Walker continues his hot start to the season but the rest of us all failed last night. I guess the only option is to keep betting? 

THE PARLAY ALGO

My most formative years were spent as a Sam Hinkie truther and truster of the process so it should be no surprise that I love analytics. But where I zig while others zag is that I prefer to make up my own analytics and use them to track absolute nonsense. This is never more evident than in the namesake Parlay Pete picks league. 

Background: 5 “gentlemen” each make their own pick for that week’s NFL slate which gets submitted as a 5-leg $5 parlay. 

Algorithm: It is important to note that the goal of the Parlay Pete pick league is not purely to make money (because if it was we would be failing miserably) but to outscore our fellows. To that end, I created a proprietary algorithm to track and score every pick for the last 3 seasons. Since the 2024-2025 season, we have won exactly one (1) parlay, and cashed out several others. So what does the algorithm value if we are not winning regularly?

1. Win/Loss (50%):

1. There has been much debate on how heavily the win/loss record should be weighted. Yes, it is the most important factor, but we want to encourage creativity and risk.

2. Weighted profit/loss (35%): 

1. What was the potential earning/loss of each individual pick? Ex: We went 3-2 in a given parlay where the potential payout was $500. The 3 wins have a weighted profit/loss of $0 because it is not their fault. The 2 losers need to split the loss of $500 because it is their fault we are not rolling in money. 

3. Risk (15%)

1. Simply how high were the odds of your pick. We value taking risks as scared money don’t make money. A win on a +250 leg is much more valuable to the group than a win on a -150 leg and we need to reward that. 

History: Our win came in the LA Rams/SF matchup of the current season and below you can see the algorithm at work.  To maintain both the privacy and the piracy of each individual, their names have been slightly adjusted. Despite every member winning their bet, Ulysses comes out on top overall on the back of the +195 odds making him responsible for a whopping $144 of the payout. 

Now, what do we do with the $252.50 in winnings? League policy (somewhere in our group chat that got enough thumbs ups) states that half is remitted to the members, and the remaining half is reinvested into the league in the form of future parlays. So the $125 left over was broken up into 5 different $25 parlays. To the surprise of no one, we have gone 0-4 on those parlays to date, but I have a feeling #5 will go differently. As we say each week, we’re due.